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Showers and the odd storm in WA's west & NSW's west in unstable air. Showers in the NT's eastern Top End, eastern QLD, and northern and eastern NSW with onshore winds directed by a high pressure ridge. Dry and mostly settled elsewhere with high pressure.
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Today, 4:35AM UTC
A very wet weekend ahead for NSW
Rainfall is set to intensify over the weekend and early next week, with hundreds of millimetres in just three days possible across parts of the central NSW coastline. The heavy rainfall forecast at the end of this week will follow a prolonged period of rainfall which began on Tuesday, generated by a coastal trough lingering off the NSW coast for days. Nord’s Wharf Oval in the Hunter Valley recorded 93mm in the 24 hours leading up to 9am Wednesday, May 5. To the west of that station Cooranbong recorded its wettest day in 13 years with 52.4mm falling during the same period. The satellite image below shows a mass of cloud and rainfall around the central NSW coastline on Wednesday afternoon. Image: Himawari-9 satellite image at 1:20pm AEST on Wednesday, May 1 While rainfall is expected to fall each day from now until the weekend, the heaviest falls are expected between Saturday and Tuesday as an upper-level low approaches NSW. During this period the central and northern NSW coasts, including Sydney, are forecast to see widespread falls of 60-120mm with isolated falls exceeding 200mm in some areas. The map below shows one model’s daily rainfall forecast from Saturday, May 4 to Monday, May. You can see that the largest daily totals are expected across central and northeastern NSW and southern Qld on Saturday, including some high totals in NSW’s west. The rainfall will then focus on eastern NSW and southeastern Qld on Sunday and Monday, with the heaviest falls along the central and northern NSW coastline on Sunday. This rainfall could cause flooding in NSW and southern Qld during this period, with this rainfall as it falls on a sodden landscape from the wet days preceding it.
Today, 3:02AM UTC
Adelaide's driest February-to-April in 101 years
Adelaide just had one of its driest February-to-April periods on record as stubborn high pressure continues to shield southern Australia from autumn rainfall. The official weather station in Adelaide (West Terrace / ngayirdapira) only received 12 mm of rain in April. Coming off the back of an even drier March (3 mm) and a completely rainless February, the city only registered 15 mm of rain during the last three months. This was Adelaide’s driest February-to-April period since 1923 and its fourth driest such period since records commenced in 1839. The driest was 3.1 mm in 1923. Abnormally high mean sea level pressure to the south of Australia has prevented rain-bearing cold fronts from reaching SA so far this autumn. At a time of year when an average of around 88 mm should be falling in Adelaide, the city only received 17% of this amount in the last three months. Image: Monthly mean sea level pressure anomaly during March 2024, showing an area of pressure to the south of Australia that was about 4 hPa above average for this time of year. Unfortunately for Adelaide, the pattern of stubborn high pressure to the south of Australia will stick around into the first half of May. This will limit the city’s chances of receiving any substantial rainfall over the next couple of weeks. According to SA Water, the state’s reservoirs were sitting at 47 % of capacity at the end of April 2024. This was down from 59 % full at the same time last year.
30 Apr 2024, 10:16AM UTC
Rain arrives in Perth after driest seven months on record
Perth just registered its driest October-to-April period on record despite a welcome burst of rain on Tuesday. Summer and the surrounding months are typically the driest time of year in Perth as cold fronts shift further south and rain-shielding high pressure systems become the dominant synoptic feature over southwestern Australia. Image: Perth’s average monthly rainfall throughout the year. However, even by Perth’s dry season standards, the last seven months have seen exceptionally low rainfall. In an average pair of years, Perth would receive around 160 mm of rain between October and April. But over the last seven months, the city has only collected 23 mm, which is less than 15 % of the long-term average. The past seven months have easily been Perth’s driest October-to-April period on record, beating the previous record of 48.8 mm from 2000-01, with data available back to 1880. Perth's official rainfall total for the last seven months includes any rain that reached the city’s gauge between 9am on September 30 and 9am on April 30. This is because a meteorological rain day includes all rainfall recorded during the 24 hours up to 9am each day. So, while Perth received some very welcome rain on Tuesday as weakening thunderstorms drifted south over the city, it all fell after 9am and was therefore officially counted as May's rainfall. Image: Rain and thunderstorms over southwestern Australia, inclding Perth, on Tuesday, April 30. As of 6pm AWST on Tuesday, Perth had received 6 mm of rain, which was the city's best daily rainfall in six mohths.
Weather in Business
23 Apr 2024, 12:07AM UTC
Wind returning to southeastern Australia
After a prolonged period of light winds, a surge of powerful winds and cool air will push through southeastern Australia during the next 48 hours. As we wrote about last week the National Electricity Market (NEM) saw very low wind power generation during the seven days leading up to Thursday, April 18, with the daily wind generation having been under 41 GWh/day for this period. Wind power has improved slightly during the past week, with wind power increasing for a few days over last weekend. The chart below shows that the winds across the NEM have already increased in response to a cold front approaching SA and Vic on Tuesday. The increase in wind power is associated with a cold front sweeping across southeastern Australia, after a stubborn high-pressure system forced many cold fronts south for over a week. The map below shows the cold front marching across the Bight, approaching SA on Tuesday morning. You can also see a broad area of speckled cloud in the Bight, which is a tell-tale sign that a large mass of cold polar air has broken away from the Antarctic region and is venturing into the relatively warm mid-latitudes. Image: Himawari-9 satellite image at 9:30am AEST on Tuesday, April 23. Northwesterly winds will continue to strengthen ahead of the cold front on Tuesday in SA and Vic before a strong southwesterly change hits Adelaide on Tuesday afternoon and Melbourne in the evening. The images below show the wind gust forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Image: Instantaneous wind gust forecast at 1pm AEST on Tuesday (top) (bottom)and Wednesday, April 23 and 24, according to ECMWF While most of this wind should hit the wind power ‘sweet spot’, cut outs could occur at southeastern Vic and southern NSW wind farms late Tuesday into Wednesday. Generally, cut outs occur when wind speeds exceed 90km/h (25 m/s), which is when the wind turbines are turned off to prevent damage. In the image above you can see the front and associated southerly change moving up the NSW coast on Wednesday, hitting Sydney on Wednesday afternoon. Winds will then become light later this week as another high-pressure system moves into the Bight. Cool change coming Ahead of this change, much of southeastern Australia has experienced pleasant autumnal weather, with Sydney’s temperature for the next two days reaching 27°C. However, there will be a large temperature contrast ahead and behind the cold front in the next few days. The image below shows forecast air temperatures around 1.5km above sea level on Wednesday morning, showing the cool airmass moving over parts of SA, VIC, Tas. Behind the cold front strong southwesterly winds will cause temperatures to plummet to around 2-3°C below average across southern Australia; Melbourne and Adelaide's temperature dropping to around 16-18°C for several days following the front. Hobart’s temperature will drop from 22°C on Tuesday to 15°C on Wednesday. Sydney’s temperature will go from 5°C above average on Wednesday to average on Thursday. The coolest air will move over Tas, bringing snow to the alpine region there. Looking ahead, temperatures will recover later this week ahead of another cold front and burst of wind power early next week.
18 Apr 2024, 3:20AM UTC
Generation gone with the wind
A weeklong stretch of low wind power was broken on Wednesday evening, as a weak cold front marched across southern Australia. The chart below shows that the National Electricity Market (NEM) has endured a weeklong stretch of low wind generation, with wind power providing around 6% of the NEM’s electricity, down from last year’s average of 13.1% (Mon, April 15 to Wed, April 17). The daily wind generation has been under 41 GWh/day for the last seven days leading up to Thursday, April 18. The calmest winds occurred on Sunday, April 14 with only 24 GWh/day produced or 4.6% of grid demand. To put this in perspective, the average daily wind generation during the last year up to Wednesday, April 17, 2024, was 71 GWh/day, according to data from the open NEM. This prolonged period of low wind was caused by blocking high pressure systems sitting over southern Australia, forcing cold fronts or strong wind further south. The image below shows the Mean Sea Level Pressure chart on the calmest day, Sunday, April 14, with high pressure stubbornly sitting over the southern half of the country. Image: Mean Sea Level Pressure Analysis at 4am AEST on Sunday, April 14. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. As we mentioned earlier today, a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has led to consistent high pressure systems positioned over latitudes well south of Australia during the first three months of the year and during this week. This has kept cold fronts south of the mainland, and even south of Tasmania. READ MORE: WHAT IS THE SAM? The period of light winds ended abruptly on Wednesday evening, with WattClarity reporting that wind production peaking above 3,000 MW at 9:10pm AEST. The increased wind power on Wednesday night, was caused by a couple of factors; A weak cold front swept across the southeast on Wednesday, bringing stronger winds. A very shallow temperature inversion formed in the early evening protecting the surface from the stronger winds, but the wind turbine hub-height (150 metres above the ground) winds remained strong at around 28-38 km/h in SA. Temperature inversions form at night when the ground cools quicker than the air above it, meaning that the temperature increases with height for a thin layer of the atmosphere. During autumn, the temperature inversions are commonly shallow meaning that while the wind could be weak at the surface, the hub heights could continue to experience strong winds. A similar phenomenon could happen again tonight across southern Australia, with another cold front passing across the south. Looking ahead, light winds are expected to continue from Friday as a stubborn high-pressure system builds over the Bight until early to mid-next week.
