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Gusty showers over the east coasts of QLD and northern NSW in onshore winds from high pressure. Light showers over western WA with a weakening trough. Dry and settled elsewhere with high pressure.
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Today, 9:00PM UTC
Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro surf forecast
After an emotional mid-year cut at the Margaret River Pro surf competition in Western Australia last week, surfers that fell below the cut line, along with up-and-coming talent, will be battling it out on the Gold Coast from this weekend onwards. The first stop on the Challenger Series (the lesser format of the Championship Tour) will take place along the Gold Coast’s premier surf point breaks, starting this morning and running to Saturday May 4th. While forecasting the appearance of recently “retired” GOAT Kelly Slater is quite the challenge until he actually hits the water (even following his confirmed spot on the events draw), the forecast for the actual surf is a little bit more straightforward. This weekend will see chest-to-maybe-head-high waves pealing along the sand bottom points as a combination of a medium sized south swell wraps around the point (loosing size in doing so), with a smaller background east swell also running in the background, biggest on Saturday and a touch smaller on Sunday. Conditions will be good with southerly winds keeping the wave face on the cleaner side. Showers will also increase on Saturday, persisting on Sunday, so pack an umbrella if you plan on going down to see some of the action this weekend. Image of modeled Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) and surface winds according to ECMWF showing the various swell being generated late this week for the weekend, with a larger south swell and smaller east swell providing ample surf for the start of the competition. Next week will see the south swell ease off, with easterly trade swell generally persisting in the small range. Smaller waves will prove more of a challenge for competitors, but enough energy should push into the point to keep competition going over the early-to-mid-week. Winds will become much lighter on Monday and Tuesday, with possibly more easterly seabreezes bringing a ruffle to the waves in the afternoons, before the return of southerly winds from Wednesday or Thursday onwards. Showers will also ease off, with some warmer temperatures making way for more pleasant conditions for spectators. Image of modeled MSLP and surface winds on Tuesday 30th according to ECMWF showing the various swell being generated next week, with a few weaker south and east swell in the mix, providing smaller surf with lighter winds. The latter half of the competition window is much more uncertain, but some models have a low spinning up in the Tasman Sea, bringing the possibility of larger waves to close off this year's Gold Coast Pro. The size of the surf wrapping into the points will depend on the location of any developing low, with the closest proximity providing the most size. Competitors and organizers will keep a keen eye on the forecast for the possibility of larger surf on finals day. Image of modeled MSLP and surface winds next weekend according to ECMWF showing the prospect for larger southerly swell being generated late next week and into next weekend.
Today, 4:48AM UTC
Uncontrolled WA fire causes massive smoke plume
A bushfire burning out of control in the far southwest of WA has created a 700 km-long smoke plume that can be seen from space. The animation below was captured on Friday morning by the Himawari-9 satellite, which sits roughly 36,000 km above the Earth’s surface. Video: Visible true-colour Himiwari-9 satellite imagery from Friday morning, April 24, 2024. The smoke was coming from a large fire burning in the Frankland State Forest area to the northeast of Walpole. As of midday local on Friday, an Emergency Warning was in place for the fire, which was burning out of control and moving in a southwesterly direction at the time. Image: Satellite image captured at 11:20am AWST on Friday. Source: RAMMB/CIRA The southwest of WA has seen a remarkably long spell of very low rainfall over the past several months, with some places receiving little or no rainfall so far this year. Image: Rainfall deciles for January to March in 2024. Source: Bureau of Meteorology The North Walpole weather station, located close to the fireground, has only seen 44 mm of rain since the start of December. In an average year, the site would pick up a bit more than 200 mm between December and April. Winds will tend westerly on Saturday and then shift southerly on Sunday with a cold front. These changing wind directions may cause the fire to behave erratically and move in varying directions over the next 48 hours. The front may also bring some light rain on Sunday morning. Visit the Emergency WA website for the most up-to-date information on fires burning in WA.
Today, 1:52AM UTC
Storms hitting WA as Perth's wait for rain continues
Despite thunderstorms rumbling over WA today and more rain on the way next week, Perth’s nervous wait for decent rain could continue into May. Friday morning’s sunrise revealed a large mass of clouds producing rain and thunderstorms over the southern inland of WA. This wet and stormy weather is being caused by moisture-laden air interacting with an upper-level trough, which is a typical mid-autumn weather pattern in southwestern Australia. Image: Composite satellite, Oracle rainfall and lightning strike observations at 8:20am AWST on Friday, April 26, 2024. Rain and thunderstorms will continue over parts of the Gascoyne, Goldfields and Central Wheatbelt districts during Friday, generally spreading from west to east. Drier weather will then return for most of the state on the weekend, before another rain-bearing system arrives next week. As we pointed out earlier this week, there is some uncertainty regarding where and how much rain will fall in WA next week. Most models agree that a low pressure trough and associated low pressure system will cause rain and thunderstorms to develop over western and southwestern districts of WA between Monday and Thursday. However, it is unclear whether this rain will mostly stay inland or include Perth and other parched areas of the state’s west coast. Below are accumulated rain forecasts from three different models for the seven days between today and Thursday next week. Images: Forecast 7-day accumulated rain for the week ending on Thursday, May 2, 2024, according to the ECMWF-HRES (top), GFS (middle) and ACCESS-G (bottom) models. All three models shown above agree on the general area that will see rainfall over the coming week. However, there is an obvious lack of alignment in terms of how much will fall and which areas will see the heaviest rain. For Perth, this forecast uncertainty is likely to cause some frustration as the city waits for a decent drop of rain to break its ongoing dry spell. The city just endured its driest six-month period on record after collecting only 21.8 mm between October and March. As of Friday morning, there has only been another 1.2 mm in the city’s gauge during April. It is clear that some area of WA will see useful rain over the coming week and there is some hope of rain for Perth. However, there is also a decent chance that the city’s record-breaking dry spell will continue into the opening week of May.
Weather in Business
23 Apr 2024, 12:07AM UTC
Wind returning to southeastern Australia
After a prolonged period of light winds, a surge of powerful winds and cool air will push through southeastern Australia during the next 48 hours. As we wrote about last week the National Electricity Market (NEM) saw very low wind power generation during the seven days leading up to Thursday, April 18, with the daily wind generation having been under 41 GWh/day for this period. Wind power has improved slightly during the past week, with wind power increasing for a few days over last weekend. The chart below shows that the winds across the NEM have already increased in response to a cold front approaching SA and Vic on Tuesday. The increase in wind power is associated with a cold front sweeping across southeastern Australia, after a stubborn high-pressure system forced many cold fronts south for over a week. The map below shows the cold front marching across the Bight, approaching SA on Tuesday morning. You can also see a broad area of speckled cloud in the Bight, which is a tell-tale sign that a large mass of cold polar air has broken away from the Antarctic region and is venturing into the relatively warm mid-latitudes. Image: Himawari-9 satellite image at 9:30am AEST on Tuesday, April 23. Northwesterly winds will continue to strengthen ahead of the cold front on Tuesday in SA and Vic before a strong southwesterly change hits Adelaide on Tuesday afternoon and Melbourne in the evening. The images below show the wind gust forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Image: Instantaneous wind gust forecast at 1pm AEST on Tuesday (top) (bottom)and Wednesday, April 23 and 24, according to ECMWF While most of this wind should hit the wind power ‘sweet spot’, cut outs could occur at southeastern Vic and southern NSW wind farms late Tuesday into Wednesday. Generally, cut outs occur when wind speeds exceed 90km/h (25 m/s), which is when the wind turbines are turned off to prevent damage. In the image above you can see the front and associated southerly change moving up the NSW coast on Wednesday, hitting Sydney on Wednesday afternoon. Winds will then become light later this week as another high-pressure system moves into the Bight. Cool change coming Ahead of this change, much of southeastern Australia has experienced pleasant autumnal weather, with Sydney’s temperature for the next two days reaching 27°C. However, there will be a large temperature contrast ahead and behind the cold front in the next few days. The image below shows forecast air temperatures around 1.5km above sea level on Wednesday morning, showing the cool airmass moving over parts of SA, VIC, Tas. Behind the cold front strong southwesterly winds will cause temperatures to plummet to around 2-3°C below average across southern Australia; Melbourne and Adelaide's temperature dropping to around 16-18°C for several days following the front. Hobart’s temperature will drop from 22°C on Tuesday to 15°C on Wednesday. Sydney’s temperature will go from 5°C above average on Wednesday to average on Thursday. The coolest air will move over Tas, bringing snow to the alpine region there. Looking ahead, temperatures will recover later this week ahead of another cold front and burst of wind power early next week.
18 Apr 2024, 3:20AM UTC
Generation gone with the wind
A weeklong stretch of low wind power was broken on Wednesday evening, as a weak cold front marched across southern Australia. The chart below shows that the National Electricity Market (NEM) has endured a weeklong stretch of low wind generation, with wind power providing around 6% of the NEM’s electricity, down from last year’s average of 13.1% (Mon, April 15 to Wed, April 17). The daily wind generation has been under 41 GWh/day for the last seven days leading up to Thursday, April 18. The calmest winds occurred on Sunday, April 14 with only 24 GWh/day produced or 4.6% of grid demand. To put this in perspective, the average daily wind generation during the last year up to Wednesday, April 17, 2024, was 71 GWh/day, according to data from the open NEM. This prolonged period of low wind was caused by blocking high pressure systems sitting over southern Australia, forcing cold fronts or strong wind further south. The image below shows the Mean Sea Level Pressure chart on the calmest day, Sunday, April 14, with high pressure stubbornly sitting over the southern half of the country. Image: Mean Sea Level Pressure Analysis at 4am AEST on Sunday, April 14. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. As we mentioned earlier today, a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has led to consistent high pressure systems positioned over latitudes well south of Australia during the first three months of the year and during this week. This has kept cold fronts south of the mainland, and even south of Tasmania. READ MORE: WHAT IS THE SAM? The period of light winds ended abruptly on Wednesday evening, with WattClarity reporting that wind production peaking above 3,000 MW at 9:10pm AEST. The increased wind power on Wednesday night, was caused by a couple of factors; A weak cold front swept across the southeast on Wednesday, bringing stronger winds. A very shallow temperature inversion formed in the early evening protecting the surface from the stronger winds, but the wind turbine hub-height (150 metres above the ground) winds remained strong at around 28-38 km/h in SA. Temperature inversions form at night when the ground cools quicker than the air above it, meaning that the temperature increases with height for a thin layer of the atmosphere. During autumn, the temperature inversions are commonly shallow meaning that while the wind could be weak at the surface, the hub heights could continue to experience strong winds. A similar phenomenon could happen again tonight across southern Australia, with another cold front passing across the south. Looking ahead, light winds are expected to continue from Friday as a stubborn high-pressure system builds over the Bight until early to mid-next week.
