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Today, 10:00PM UTC
A digger's letter from snowbound Gallipoli
In weather terms, the Anzacs at Gallipoli copped it all – from parched, scorching summers to freezing winters as weather systems with origins in the Russian Arctic surged southwards over Turkey. Most of the Australians who fought with at Gallipoli had never seen snow, and there's one memorable letter from a digger that captures his first experience of a snowfall. We ran the key section of the letter in our story about Gallipoli weather on Anzac Day 2021, but we thought we'd give a bit more context this time. The letter, dated 28 November 1915, was penned by Private Ronald McInnis of the 26th Battalion. McInnis was a prolific diarist and letter writer who served his country in Europe as well as at Gallipoli. He survived the war and lived till old age, dying in his nineties in 1982. You can read his letters and diary entries at the Australian War Memorial's online archives. Many of them are quite long and descriptive, although that's not true for his entry about the snowfall of November 28. In the great tradition of the understated Australian, this entry said plenty by saying little. "It is actually snowing this morning. The first I have ever seen. I woke up to find the whole country white. It looks beautiful and covers over so many things which are not." Image: Diggers in the snow at Gallipoli, winter of 2015/16. Source: Australian War Memorial. That's it. That was all Private Ronald McInnis had to say about an unexpected snowfall which heralded the onset of a brutal winter in which many ANZACs suffered frostbite. The next diary entry from Private McInnis, dated December 2, was what you might call "back to business" as he shared details of life in the trenches, including the paradoxical fact that the closer you were to the front line, the safer you were from shell fire. "We have had a bad time lately with shell-fire. It has increased very consideraby, and our casualties are numerous. The trenches are too close on Quinn's Post for either side to shell the other much, so we are safest from it in the front line." The Gallipoli campaign would eventually end before winter did. But its legacy lives on. Lest we forget. Image: Memorial wall at Anzac Cove, Gallipoli, Turkey. Source: iStock. GALLIPOLI WEATHER STATS For those interested in the current weather conditions or long-term averages (in a 30-year period from 1981-2010) in the coastal city of Çanakkale, the closest large city to the battlefields of Gallipoli, the Turkish State Meteorological Service has a page here. You'll be interested to note that: The average maximum temperature in the hottest month is 30.7°C (July and August equally), which is hotter than the average maximums in Sydney, Melbourne or Canberra in their hottest month (January) The average maximum temperature in the coldest month (January) is 9.7°C, which is colder than the average maximums in Sydney, Melbourne or Canberra in their coldest month (July).
Today, 5:39AM UTC
Summery Sydney, wintry Melbourne
It's been one of those days when Australia's two largest cities could hardly have been more different in terms of weather. Never mind the tedious old arguments about the food, coffee, culture, sport, traffic, scenery and the rest of it in the two cities. On this autumn Wednesday, Melbourne feels like winter while Sydney feels like summer. At 1 pm: Melbourne was shivering in just 13.1°C Sydney was basking in 24.6°C At 3 pm: Melbourne had warmed up to 16.3°C with its likely high for the day of 16.6°C achieved a few minutes later Sydney was sitting on a very balmy 25.6°C, having reached its likely maximum of 26.3°C just before 2 pm We wrote earlier this Wednesday morning about the cold front that whipped through Tasmania and southern Victoria overnight, and how its effects would be limited further north. Cooler air will reach Sydney a little later, dropping the late afternoon temperature by several degrees within a few minutes, and lowering the maximum to 23°C on Anzac Day. But the 3 pm live temperature chart above showed that the Sydney basin remained under the influence of warm northwesterly winds until well into the afternoon, even as much cooler temps were evident across the rest of southern and central NSW, as well as the whole of Victoria. Interestingly, Sydney's average maximum in its hottest month of January is 26.0° so today's top temperature has exceeded that mark.
Today, 3:00AM UTC
Rainfall to soak some parched areas of WA
Rain will soak parts of WA over the coming week, although forecast models are struggling to agree on whether this burst of wet weather will bring much-needed rain to parched Perth. This rainfall will be caused by a low pressure trough extending from the Kimberley down to southwestern WA from late Thursday, with a low pressure system developing within it early to mid-next week. The images below shows that widespread rainfall of between 15 to 30mm is forecast in the week across western and southern WA, with isolated falls of between 40 to 60mm in the Gascoyne and Goldfields districts. Image: Accumulated rainfall to 8pm AWST on Thursday, May 2, according to Access (top) and ECMWF (bottom) You can see there is still some uncertainty about where and how much rainfall will fall in these areas late this week and early next week, with one model placing rain over Perth and the other predicting it will completely miss the city altogether. The heaviest rainfall days are likely to be Friday and mid next week when the low pressure system develops. The maps below show that the rainfall forecast varies on Friday between computer models, but the highest totals should develop over the Gascoyne and Goldfields. Images: Accumulated rainfall forecast for the 24 hours leading up to 11pm WST Friday, April 26, according to ECMWF (top) and Access (bottom). Rain will ease on Saturday before developing across the far southwest on Sunday, as a cold front clips the district. Rain will intensify early to mid-next week, with the largest totals expected on Tuesday, April 30 across western and southern WA, possibly hitting parched Perth. Accumulated rainfall forecast for the 24 hours leading up to 11pm WST Tuesday, April 30, according to Access (bottom) and ECMWF (top). Heavy falls of 20mm across three hourly totals is possible on Friday and again mid next week in the Gascoyne and Goldfields, possibly impacting mine operations in this region. While this week's rain is welcome, it's unlikely to be drought-breaking across the bone-dry region. The map below shows that areas of the southwest have experienced the lowest rainfall on record during the last eight months. Image: rainfall deficiencies for 8 months between August 1 2023 and March 31 2024, source: Bureau of Meteorology. The state’s southwest remains abnormally dry, with hardly any rainfall registered in the gauges in March. Image: WA rainfall deciles in March 2024, Source: Bureau of Meteorology In the map above you can see March was a wet month for large areas of WA with several sites recording the highest daily rainfall on record. Much of this rainfall fell between the 9th and 13th of March across central and southeastern parts of the state after a slow-moving trough and tropical moisture brought heavy rain and thunderstorms. Looking ahead, there are signs of a rain-bearing cold front late next week, with the potential to hit Perth. Over the coming months, average to below-average rainfall is forecast across southern WA, but there is potential for locally above-average rain in winter.
Weather in Business
23 Apr 2024, 12:07AM UTC
Wind returning to southeastern Australia
After a prolonged period of light winds, a surge of powerful winds and cool air will push through southeastern Australia during the next 48 hours. As we wrote about last week the National Electricity Market (NEM) saw very low wind power generation during the seven days leading up to Thursday, April 18, with the daily wind generation having been under 41 GWh/day for this period. Wind power has improved slightly during the past week, with wind power increasing for a few days over last weekend. The chart below shows that the winds across the NEM have already increased in response to a cold front approaching SA and Vic on Tuesday. The increase in wind power is associated with a cold front sweeping across southeastern Australia, after a stubborn high-pressure system forced many cold fronts south for over a week. The map below shows the cold front marching across the Bight, approaching SA on Tuesday morning. You can also see a broad area of speckled cloud in the Bight, which is a tell-tale sign that a large mass of cold polar air has broken away from the Antarctic region and is venturing into the relatively warm mid-latitudes. Image: Himawari-9 satellite image at 9:30am AEST on Tuesday, April 23. Northwesterly winds will continue to strengthen ahead of the cold front on Tuesday in SA and Vic before a strong southwesterly change hits Adelaide on Tuesday afternoon and Melbourne in the evening. The images below show the wind gust forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Image: Instantaneous wind gust forecast at 1pm AEST on Tuesday (top) (bottom)and Wednesday, April 23 and 24, according to ECMWF While most of this wind should hit the wind power ‘sweet spot’, cut outs could occur at southeastern Vic and southern NSW wind farms late Tuesday into Wednesday. Generally, cut outs occur when wind speeds exceed 90km/h (25 m/s), which is when the wind turbines are turned off to prevent damage. In the image above you can see the front and associated southerly change moving up the NSW coast on Wednesday, hitting Sydney on Wednesday afternoon. Winds will then become light later this week as another high-pressure system moves into the Bight. Cool change coming Ahead of this change, much of southeastern Australia has experienced pleasant autumnal weather, with Sydney’s temperature for the next two days reaching 27°C. However, there will be a large temperature contrast ahead and behind the cold front in the next few days. The image below shows forecast air temperatures around 1.5km above sea level on Wednesday morning, showing the cool airmass moving over parts of SA, VIC, Tas. Behind the cold front strong southwesterly winds will cause temperatures to plummet to around 2-3°C below average across southern Australia; Melbourne and Adelaide's temperature dropping to around 16-18°C for several days following the front. Hobart’s temperature will drop from 22°C on Tuesday to 15°C on Wednesday. Sydney’s temperature will go from 5°C above average on Wednesday to average on Thursday. The coolest air will move over Tas, bringing snow to the alpine region there. Looking ahead, temperatures will recover later this week ahead of another cold front and burst of wind power early next week.
18 Apr 2024, 3:20AM UTC
Generation gone with the wind
A weeklong stretch of low wind power was broken on Wednesday evening, as a weak cold front marched across southern Australia. The chart below shows that the National Electricity Market (NEM) has endured a weeklong stretch of low wind generation, with wind power providing around 6% of the NEM’s electricity, down from last year’s average of 13.1% (Mon, April 15 to Wed, April 17). The daily wind generation has been under 41 GWh/day for the last seven days leading up to Thursday, April 18. The calmest winds occurred on Sunday, April 14 with only 24 GWh/day produced or 4.6% of grid demand. To put this in perspective, the average daily wind generation during the last year up to Wednesday, April 17, 2024, was 71 GWh/day, according to data from the open NEM. This prolonged period of low wind was caused by blocking high pressure systems sitting over southern Australia, forcing cold fronts or strong wind further south. The image below shows the Mean Sea Level Pressure chart on the calmest day, Sunday, April 14, with high pressure stubbornly sitting over the southern half of the country. Image: Mean Sea Level Pressure Analysis at 4am AEST on Sunday, April 14. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. As we mentioned earlier today, a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has led to consistent high pressure systems positioned over latitudes well south of Australia during the first three months of the year and during this week. This has kept cold fronts south of the mainland, and even south of Tasmania. READ MORE: WHAT IS THE SAM? The period of light winds ended abruptly on Wednesday evening, with WattClarity reporting that wind production peaking above 3,000 MW at 9:10pm AEST. The increased wind power on Wednesday night, was caused by a couple of factors; A weak cold front swept across the southeast on Wednesday, bringing stronger winds. A very shallow temperature inversion formed in the early evening protecting the surface from the stronger winds, but the wind turbine hub-height (150 metres above the ground) winds remained strong at around 28-38 km/h in SA. Temperature inversions form at night when the ground cools quicker than the air above it, meaning that the temperature increases with height for a thin layer of the atmosphere. During autumn, the temperature inversions are commonly shallow meaning that while the wind could be weak at the surface, the hub heights could continue to experience strong winds. A similar phenomenon could happen again tonight across southern Australia, with another cold front passing across the south. Looking ahead, light winds are expected to continue from Friday as a stubborn high-pressure system builds over the Bight until early to mid-next week.
