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Showers & a few storms in WA's east, the NT & inland QLD with help from abundant tropical moisture & unstable air. Some of these showers & storms are heavy. Showers about eastern QLD & NSW are due to moist winds. Dry and clear elsewhere with high pressure.
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Today, 1:07AM UTC
Exceptionally warm, dry March for parts of SA
Soaring temperatures and abundantly clear skies have just caused one of the warmest and driest Marches on record in parts of South Australia. Abnormally high pressure near southern Australia this month has kept rain-bearing systems away from SA, leading to plenty of warm and dry weather across the state. Image: Clear skies over SA on March 28. This was a familiar sight during March 2024. In the northern pastoral districts, daytime maximum temperatures have averaged around 35 to 37°C at Maree, Oodnadatta, Moomba and Coober Pedy. While temperatures have been lower further south, Adelaide’s running average maximum of just over 29°C so far this month is about 3°C above the long-term average. Based on observations up to 9am on March 28 and forecasts for the remainder of the month, parts of SA are on track to register one of their hottest Marches on record. Oodnadatta’s mean maximum temperature should come in somewhere around 36.9°C at the end of the month, which would be its second hottest March on record behind 38.3°C from 1986. Data at Oodnadatta dates back to 1940. Coober Pedy’s average maximum temperature for the month should end up around 35.5°C, which would be its 3rd hottest March behind 1986 (36.6°C) and 1978 (36.2°C). In addition to this month’s near-record heat, the state’s rain gauges have seen little rainfall over the last few weeks. Adelaide has only picked up 3 mm of rain so far this month and doesn’t look like it will see any precipitation before the end of March. It’s been 9 years since March was this dry in the state capital. Further north, Clare’s running monthly total of 0.4 mm is its lowest in 30 years. Looking ahead, a burst of rain and thunderstorms will soak the state’s north in the final days of March as tropical moisture drifts south along a low pressure trough. There is a chance that some of this moisture will also deliver rain over the state’s south in the first few days of April, although this is not locked in at this stage.
27 Mar 2024, 2:04AM UTC
Easter deluge possible as tropical moisture moves south
The tropical moisture that caused significant flooding in the NT and Qld is set to move southeast over Easter, bringing heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and possible flooding and damaging winds with it. The map below shows the massive rainfall totals that fell across the southern NT and parts of Qld over the last week. Image: The Red Centre became the purple centre. Source: Bureau of Meteorology During the week ending on Wednesday, March 27, Rabbit Flat in the NT recorded 277 mm, contributing to its wettest March on record. The moisture from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Megan and a low-pressure trough combined to cause this extremely wet week. This moisture and trough will continue to generate thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over the coming days across parts of the NT and Qld. The tropical moisture is expected to move south and then east over the Easter weekend, with heavy rainfall expected in eastern SA and western NSW on Sunday. There is still considerable uncertainty on where and how much rainfall will fall over the region, but one computer model suggests widespread falls of 20-30mm and isolated areas of 50-100mm are possible in western SA on Sunday. Image: Accumulated rainfall for the 24 hours leading up to 11pm on Sunday, March 31, according to ECMWF The tropical moisture should link up with a cold front that will sweep across southeastern Australia in the back end of the Easter long weekend, dragging the rainband eastward into western and central Vic on Monday. The map below shows that 20-30mm could fall in southeastern SA and western Vic on Monday. Image: Accumulated rainfall for the 24 hours leading up to 11pm on Monday, April 1, according to ECMWF Early next week, there are early signs that a cut off low could develop in the Tasman Sea near NSW and Vic. Some computer models are showing rainfall increasing across central and eastern Vic and parts of NSW on Tuesday, with 40-60 mm in a day possible in some areas. Image: Accumulated rainfall for the 24 hours leading up to 11pm on Tuesday, April 2, according to ECMWF On Wednesday, the models predict heavy falls across eastern Vic and southern NSW, which could cause flooding in the region. If the low develops, damaging winds could also impact parts of central and eastern Vic early next week. Image: Accumulated rainfall for the 24 hours leading up to 11pm on Wednesday, April 3, according to ECMWF Please keep an eye out for the latest warnings as this weekend unfolds here.
26 Mar 2024, 5:53AM UTC
Relentless rain rinses Brisbane
It's not so much the huge rainfall totals, although the numbers are definitely stacking up. What's remarkable about the current rainy spell in Brisbane is the relentlessness of the soaking. Since rain started falling early on Sunday morning, it basically hasn't stopped for more than half an hour here or there, and nor does it look like stopping for at least another day. The rain has not been exceptionally heavy, but it has certainly been persistent. If you look at the three-hour loop below, you'll notice something interesting. No, you're not seeing things. Showers on the radar are definitely drenching the city concurrently from two directions. As Weatherzone meteorologist Joel Pippard explains, the main feed of moisture is being caused by a low level trough with onshore winds blowing in from the east. There is also an upper trough above Queensland around 5.5 km up in the atmosphere with a feed of tropical moisture all the way from northern WA. But as mentioned, the coastal trough is the main influence on the weather in southeast Queensland this Tuesday, and with sea surface temperatures generally at their peak in March, the level of precipitable moisture is enhanced at this time of year in systems like this. As we write this story at 3:30 pm AEST, Brisbane had recorded 19.2 mm since 9 am. That’s after 31.2 mm in the 24 hours to 9 am Tuesday, and 6.4 to 9 am in the 24 hours to 9 am Monday. Meanwhile it's interesting to compare Brisbane with three of the southern capitals in recent months. While Perth, Adelaide and Darwin have all been parched for at least the last two months – and indeed earlier this Tuesday today we wrote that Melbourne is likely to notch up its driest March in 170 years of records – Brisbane has been wet in recent months, as the graph below shows. Brisbane's rainfall total should come very close to equalling or even exceeding the March average of 132.1 mm by the end of this event. The good news is that the steady rain should ease in time for the Easter break from Friday through to Monday, although there is still the chance of showers on each of the four days.
Weather in Business
31 Jan 2024, 5:54AM UTC
Powerful waves to impact port operations
Deceptively powerful surf is forecast for this weekend, as heavy waves originating from the Southern Ocean hit the NSW coastline. The heavy surf will be whipped up by a low-pressure system sweeping across the south of the continent later this week. The map below shows wave heights of 3-4m are expected across the central and southern NSW coast on Friday and Saturday. Image: Significant wave height forecast at 5pm Saturday, February 3 according to Wave Watch III In Sydney waters, wave heights are forecast to peak at 4 to 4.5 metres on the weekend. These wave heights will create very rough seas off the Sydney and Illawarra coasts on the weekend. While the waves will be large, it's the wave period that will generate the deceptively powerful surf. Wave period is the average time between crests (or troughs) of waves. The larger the time difference, the greater the amount of energy associated with the waves or swells. The wave period should reach 10-12 seconds along the Sydney coast and south on Saturday. The map below shows the high period waves impacting the central and southern coastline on Saturday. Image: Wind wave period at 4pm on Saturday, February 3, according to Wave Watch III Looking ahead, the long period swell should move offshore by Monday easing conditions along the NSW coastline. Weatherzone Business offers a comprehensive suite of services, refined through years of collaboration with the marine, ports and offshore industries, to optimise the safety and efficiency of your operations. For more information, please contact us at business@weatherzone.com.au.
04 Jan 2024, 4:03AM UTC
Why did electricity demand hit a record low?
On the closing day of 2023, rooftop solar boomed in SA and Vic while record low energy demand was recorded in the two states. On Sunday, December 31, mild temperatures and sunny skies were behind the new record low energy demand in SA and Vic. The satellite image below shows the clear skies on Sunday across Australia's southeast mainland, which allowed rooftop solar output to become the leading energy source in SA and Vic. Image: Himawari-9 satellite image at 1pm AEDT on Sunday, December 31, 2023. Source: RAMMB/CIRA According to the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), Victoria’s minimal operational demand was 1,564 MW on Sunday, December 31, which beat the previous record that was set Sunday, November 12, 2023. SA’s demand dropped into the negatives on the same day, reaching as low as -26MW on New Year's Eve, which trumped the previous record low set back in October 2023. These new records superseded the ones set only several months ago, showing the National Energy Market (NEM) has had a period of abnormally low demand in the past couple of months. This has been driven by cooler temperatures under the influence of a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the waning impact of El Nino in December. The image below shows that on the same day, rooftop solar (yellow) contributed most of SA and Vic energy needs. Image: Vic and SA electricity generation on Sunday, December 31, Source Wattclarity The Image above also shows that wind and solar farms contributed near zero energy demand during the middle of the same day. It also shows that brown coal and rooftop solar were the two main sources of energy for the grid in the middle of the day in the states. On Sunday, winds were relatively light under the influence of a high-pressure ridge extending from Bight to the southern Tasman Sea. According to AEMO, rooftop solar contributed two-thirds of VIC's & all of SA's total energy needs on December 31. New operational demand records set in VIC (1,564 MW) & SA (-26 MW) on 31 December 2023, with #rooftopsolar contributing two-thirds of VIC's & all of SA's total energy needs. On the day, wholesale electricity prices averaged -$66.54 & -$73.02 ($/MWh) in SA & VIC, respectively. pic.twitter.com/0JUorY4wG4 — AEMO (@AEMO_Energy) January 2, 2024 Rooftop solar has been increasing year-on-year since 2018, driven by a boom in solar installations across Australia. Looking ahead, January looks to be wetter and cloudier than average across much of the NEM. February is expected to see near-to-below average rainfall and cloud, which could increase solar output in the closing month of summer.