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Today, 2:37AM UTC
Bursting banks in the Northern Territory
A vivid sight, and a telling sign of a hearty wet season. The cloud cleared late this week to reveal to satellites the abundant streamflow in the appropriately named 'Big Rivers' region of the central-north Northern Territory. Image: Himawari satellite imagery just after midday local time on Thursday March 28th showing topped up rivers across the territory. Red circles show sediment from river runoff. Water is expected to flow both into the Gulf of Carpentaria via tributaries into the Roper River, and into the Timor Sea via tributaries into the Victoria River. If you look closely, you can see enhanced sediment (brownish red) carried with the flow at the mouth of the rivers. Images: Closeups of sediment at the mouths of the Roper River (top) and Victoria River (bottom) during Friday and Saturday, respectively using Himawari satellite imagery. Of course, the larger contributor to this birds-eye beauty came from Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan, which made landfall on March 18th along the Carpentaria Coast as a Category 3 system. Even before the month of March ended, as of writing this story, Groote Eylandt Airport had already smashed its March monthly totals in records dating back to 2001, with a whopping 897.4mm of rain, over three times the monthly average of 272.4mm. As of writing this story, other nearby areas in a similar situation had smashed March rainfall records before the month even ended: Wandie Creek – 614.6mm in March 2024, March average of 168.1mm in records going back to 1984 Murganella Airstrip – 609.6mm in March 2024, March average of 135.2mm in records back to 2013 Birrindudu – 594.0mm in March 2024, March average of 68.8mm in records back to 1990 Borroloola – 504.6mm in March 2024, March average of 158.6mm in records back to 1987 Ex-Tropical Cyclone Megan lingered for up to one week after her landfall, staying alive with a humid monsoonal flow, which assisted in pounding the Top End with persistent rainfall. Inland flooding further south has prompted flood watches for central-eastern parts of the Territory. A more positive outcome of this, however, was a distinct greening of vegetation which accompanied the deluges. Image: Himawari satellite imagery at 9:25am local time on Friday March 29th. Vegetation is thriving after heavy rainfall. Whilst being a significant month for rainfall in the Northern Territory, we can expect the end of the wet season to start approaching in the next month. Keep an eye on weather forecasts here.
Today, 2:27AM UTC
Thunderstorms, and an early April soaking on the cards for southeast Australia.
Dust off the umbrellas, the rain is on the way for southeastern states early next week! The Easter weekend is looking picturesque across southeast Australia, but the next big weather system is on its way, bringing some welcome rain to the parched landscapes of Victoria and Tasmania. As we wrote here earlier this week, a trough developing over the interior is set to move south, linking up with a cold front that will sweep across the region on Easter Monday and Tuesday. The influx of tropical moisture, combining with the cold air coming up behind the front should bring ample instability, providing a good environment for thunderstorms to develop across central and southeast Australia in the coming days. Image: parts of Vic, including Melbourne, will likely record less than 10mm in March 2024. Source: BoM Through the weekend, thunderstorms will develop across inland parts of SA, the NT, and western NSW. On Easter Monday, the trough will move through southeastern Australia, allowing thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon across Vic, SA, NSW, and possibly even parts of Tas. These thunderstorms could dump as much as 50mm of rain across western and central Vic, including for Melbourne which is on the cusp of their driest March on record. In addition, storms over western and central Vic could bring damaging winds on Monday afternoon. The heaviest rain should fall over central Vic overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, as a low develops over the Bass Strait, and streaks away to the southeast. The low should also dump heavy rain over Tas as it crosses the state, making it a very soggy Easter Tuesday for our southernmost state. Image: Accumulated rainfall to 11pm EDT Tue 2nd April. It looks like a wet start to the month after a dry February and March across the southeast Overall, it looks like the end of a prolonged spell with very little rain, that goes back more than 2 months in some areas (Melbourne’s dry March is coming off the back of only 6.2mm recorded in February). Accumulated rainfall totals approaching 100mm are possible across some areas from Sunday until Tuesday night, with showers likely to top up the rain gauges across southern Vic until at least the middle of next week.
Today, 12:00AM UTC
Bad weather bitter news for chocolate prices
Fill your car boot with chocolate Easter eggs then drive back and get some more because chocolate prices are on the way up and appear likely to skyrocket in coming months. Here at Weatherzone, we try to put a positive spin on even the worst weather, but there is no sugar-coating the fact that a combination of bad weather, disease, and tree failure in Africa has created a deficit of cocoa, the key ingredient of chocolate. Originally from South America, the 6-to-12 metre tall cacao trees that produce cocoa beans are grown in tropical regions around the world, including parts of Australia. But 80% of the world's crop is grown in West Africa and that, unfortunately, is the area affected. El Niño has been part of the problem in that region, with drier conditions resulting in lower cocoa yields than normal. Unusually strong harmattan winds haven't helped either. The harmattan is a seasonal wind that blows from the dry Sahara down towards tropical West Africa. In an average year, it creates dust haze but no other major problems. But when the winds blow strongly as they have this year, tree dieback can occur. As mentioned, there have also been issues with diseased trees in some areas, while some cocoa-producing areas have seen rains that were too heavy. Image: The Easter bunny is not amused at rising chocolate prices. Source: iStock. It all adds up to cocoa prices which are reaching record levels. This week, cocoa futures topped $10,000 per ton on trading for the first time. This continues a steady increase in recent years after prices hovered between $2000 and $4000 in the two decades between 2000 and 2020. Indeed, the Australian Financial Review reports that we're already paying 9% more than last year on this 2024 Easter egg crop and could be paying double by next year. Happy Easter, and make sure the kids don't leave any eggs in the garden during the Easter Egg Hunt: those little chocolate treats are becoming more valuable than ever before.
Weather in Business
31 Jan 2024, 5:54AM UTC
Powerful waves to impact port operations
Deceptively powerful surf is forecast for this weekend, as heavy waves originating from the Southern Ocean hit the NSW coastline. The heavy surf will be whipped up by a low-pressure system sweeping across the south of the continent later this week. The map below shows wave heights of 3-4m are expected across the central and southern NSW coast on Friday and Saturday. Image: Significant wave height forecast at 5pm Saturday, February 3 according to Wave Watch III In Sydney waters, wave heights are forecast to peak at 4 to 4.5 metres on the weekend. These wave heights will create very rough seas off the Sydney and Illawarra coasts on the weekend. While the waves will be large, it's the wave period that will generate the deceptively powerful surf. Wave period is the average time between crests (or troughs) of waves. The larger the time difference, the greater the amount of energy associated with the waves or swells. The wave period should reach 10-12 seconds along the Sydney coast and south on Saturday. The map below shows the high period waves impacting the central and southern coastline on Saturday. Image: Wind wave period at 4pm on Saturday, February 3, according to Wave Watch III Looking ahead, the long period swell should move offshore by Monday easing conditions along the NSW coastline. Weatherzone Business offers a comprehensive suite of services, refined through years of collaboration with the marine, ports and offshore industries, to optimise the safety and efficiency of your operations. For more information, please contact us at business@weatherzone.com.au.
04 Jan 2024, 4:03AM UTC
Why did electricity demand hit a record low?
On the closing day of 2023, rooftop solar boomed in SA and Vic while record low energy demand was recorded in the two states. On Sunday, December 31, mild temperatures and sunny skies were behind the new record low energy demand in SA and Vic. The satellite image below shows the clear skies on Sunday across Australia's southeast mainland, which allowed rooftop solar output to become the leading energy source in SA and Vic. Image: Himawari-9 satellite image at 1pm AEDT on Sunday, December 31, 2023. Source: RAMMB/CIRA According to the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), Victoria’s minimal operational demand was 1,564 MW on Sunday, December 31, which beat the previous record that was set Sunday, November 12, 2023. SA’s demand dropped into the negatives on the same day, reaching as low as -26MW on New Year's Eve, which trumped the previous record low set back in October 2023. These new records superseded the ones set only several months ago, showing the National Energy Market (NEM) has had a period of abnormally low demand in the past couple of months. This has been driven by cooler temperatures under the influence of a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the waning impact of El Nino in December. The image below shows that on the same day, rooftop solar (yellow) contributed most of SA and Vic energy needs. Image: Vic and SA electricity generation on Sunday, December 31, Source Wattclarity The Image above also shows that wind and solar farms contributed near zero energy demand during the middle of the same day. It also shows that brown coal and rooftop solar were the two main sources of energy for the grid in the middle of the day in the states. On Sunday, winds were relatively light under the influence of a high-pressure ridge extending from Bight to the southern Tasman Sea. According to AEMO, rooftop solar contributed two-thirds of VIC's & all of SA's total energy needs on December 31. New operational demand records set in VIC (1,564 MW) & SA (-26 MW) on 31 December 2023, with #rooftopsolar contributing two-thirds of VIC's & all of SA's total energy needs. On the day, wholesale electricity prices averaged -$66.54 & -$73.02 ($/MWh) in SA & VIC, respectively. pic.twitter.com/0JUorY4wG4 — AEMO (@AEMO_Energy) January 2, 2024 Rooftop solar has been increasing year-on-year since 2018, driven by a boom in solar installations across Australia. Looking ahead, January looks to be wetter and cloudier than average across much of the NEM. February is expected to see near-to-below average rainfall and cloud, which could increase solar output in the closing month of summer.